A trader on a decentralized prediction platform has made close to $1 million by placing a series of highly accurate bets linked to U.S. and Israeli military actions involving Iran, prompting fresh scrutiny over possible insider activity in unregulated markets.
The trades, placed over the past two years, show a pattern of wagers made shortly before major geopolitical developments. Analysts say the consistency and timing of those bets stand out, even in a space known for speculative risk-taking.
Data reviewed by blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps shows the trader recorded an overall win rate of about 83%, rising to 93% for bets above $10,000. The activity generated net profits of roughly $967,000, placing the account among the most successful observed on the platform.
Timing of bets draws attention
The account repeatedly placed positions ahead of key military events. These include Israeli strikes during an escalation in October 2024, U.S. airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025, and a joint U.S.-Israel operation earlier this year that marked the start of the current conflict.
While some bets were placed days or weeks in advance, several high-value trades appeared just hours before those events became public. That pattern has raised questions about whether the trader relied on unusually sharp analysis or had access to information not widely available at the time.
Nick Vaiman, chief executive of Bubblemaps, said the signals were difficult to ignore. "All of this is strong signaling of insider activity, based on the amount they made, the markets they bet on, the timing of their trades, the success rates of these trades, and the fact that they are connected on-chain," he said. "This is pretty suspicious in my book."
The identity behind the trades remains unclear. The accounts are anonymous, and there is no confirmed link to any government or institutional source.
Win rates 'too good to be true'
Market experts say the trader's performance is highly unusual. Todd Phillips, a finance professor at Georgia State University and a former adviser to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, said most professional traders typically record win rates only slightly above 50%.
"It sure seems like this person either has incredible luck, or was insider trading," Phillips said. "Having win rates in the 80% to 90% range is just too good to be true. I look at this, and I think something fishy is going on."
He noted that bets placed further in advance are less indicative of insider knowledge. However, trades executed shortly before major developments are likely to attract closer examination.
Beyond geopolitical markets, the trader also placed smaller wagers on sports and other events, though those positions were not as profitable.
Regulatory gaps under spotlight
The bets were placed on the international version of Polymarket, which operates outside direct U.S. regulatory oversight. Although U.S. regulators have approved the company to launch a domestic platform, that service is not yet fully active.
Experts say users in the United States can still access offshore platforms using virtual private networks, complicating enforcement.
Regulatory attention has increased as prediction markets expand into areas such as elections, conflicts, and public health. Concerns include the potential misuse of non-public information and the emergence of markets tied to sensitive or high-risk events.
Kalshi, a U.S.-regulated platform, has introduced additional safeguards, including screening mechanisms for certain participants. It also prohibits insider trading. By contrast, Polymarket has previously highlighted the role of informed participants in improving market accuracy.
Lawmakers weigh response
The case comes as lawmakers in the United States consider new measures to address insider trading risks in prediction markets. Proposed legislation would bar federal officials from using non-public information to place bets on such platforms.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has also issued guidance reminding operators that insider trading is illegal and subject to enforcement action.
Jason Trost, chief executive of the U.K.-based prediction platform Smarkets, said not all informational advantages should be treated as insider activity. Some insights, he noted, may be technically public but difficult to access or interpret.
"The more of that information that gets into the marketplace, all the better," Trost said. "But if there's something you know about, that is about to happen, and it is materially non-public information, then that, I think, is the red line."
