Investment firm VinaCapital has struck an optimistic note on Vietnam's economic outlook, projecting that the country's gross domestic product (GDP) could grow by as much as 10% in 2026 under a favourable scenario supported by strong infrastructure spending, resilient exports and a gradual recovery in domestic consumption.
In its latest macroeconomic report, Looking Ahead at 2026, VinaCapital said Vietnam's economy expanded by 8% in 2025 and is expected to retain solid momentum in the near term. The firm noted that the government is targeting GDP growth of 10% in 2026, a goal it believes is achievable if key growth drivers continue to strengthen.
According to the report, economic growth in 2025 was significantly bolstered by a surge in exports of laptops and other high-tech products to the United States, which rose by about 80%.
The rebound in tourism also played a major role, with arrivals from China and India increasing by 42%. These factors helped offset relatively subdued domestic consumption growth, which VinaCapital expects to normalise alongside export growth this year.
Michael Kokalari, chief economist at VinaCapital, said the lagged effects of a sharp increase in infrastructure spending in 2025 are likely to provide a meaningful boost to growth in 2026.
He added that the firm expects three main forces to underpin economic expansion next year: a modest recovery in consumer spending, the interaction between infrastructure investment and the real estate sector, and continued strength in exports to the United States.
Under its base-case scenario, VinaCapital forecasts Vietnam's GDP growth at around 8% in 2026. However, in an upside scenario, growth could reach 10%, supported by what the firm described as relatively ample policy space that would allow the government to roll out additional pro-growth measures if required.
The firm expects domestic consumption to return to more typical growth levels by mid-2026, after a prolonged period of elevated household savings. Household incomes have grown by about 6% to 7% annually over the past two years, while stock market and real estate prices climbed by more than 30% in 2025, helping to strengthen the foundation for consumer spending. Even so, VinaCapital cautioned that achieving the government's ambitious growth target will depend on a more pronounced improvement in consumption.
Authorities have already taken steps to support demand, including extending and expanding a value-added tax reduction, introducing a modest personal income tax cut and partially easing new taxes on household businesses that had dampened consumer sentiment. While these measures are expected to provide some lift, VinaCapital estimates their direct contribution to GDP growth at less than 0.5 percentage points.
Nevertheless, the firm said the policy framework is now in place for the government to increase stimulus if economic conditions warrant it. Infrastructure investment is expected to be another key pillar of growth, with infrastructure disbursement rising by about 40% in 2025 and forecast to increase by a further 20% to 30% this year.
"We see a clear link from infrastructure investment to real estate activity and, ultimately, to stronger consumption," Kokalari said, as quoted by Viet Nam News, underscoring the role of large-scale public spending in sustaining Vietnam's growth momentum into 2026.
