Technical analysis: Singapore dollar headed south for 1.50/USD

The move off the 6-year low hit last month to a 3-month high this month is only a slight correction.

The Singapore dollar is keeping its downward trend and headed for 1.50 against the US currency in the coming weeks as the move off the 6-year low hit last month remains a slight correction.

USD/SGD had touched a high of 1.4444 on 11 January before moving south and eventually hitting a 3-month low of 1.3859 on 11 February. In the near term, this downside move is still within an upward channel formed late last year.

The immediate support levels are 1.3921, 1.3859 before 1.3726 which lies on the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the rally since June 2015 to last month's peak. The 50% line also coincides 1.3859 a break of which can delay the retest of the January peak for a while.

On the higher side, the 50-day SMA coincides 23.6% Fibonacci line at 1.4180 making it a main resistance barrier ahead of a revisit of last month's high.

On the big picture, as long as 1.3200 holds, the pair has its risks mostly skewed to the upside and there appears to be very few weak barriers like 1.4600 ahead of 1.5000, once the January peak is broken through.

Even if 1.3200 is broken on the downside, 1.3000, which coincides the 50-period SMA on the monthly chart makes a strong support ahead of a retest of the multi-year low of 1.1992 touched in July 2011.