Fuel Prices in Vietnam Surge as Middle East Conflict Disrupts Global Oil Supply

Vietnam
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Fuel prices in Vietnam rose sharply on Saturday, March 7, following the current turmoil in global oil markets triggered by escalating tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran. The sudden spike pushed petrol and diesel prices to levels not seen in nearly two years, raising concerns among consumers and businesses alike.

The price of RON 95-III gasoline, the most commonly used fuel grade in Vietnam, climbed 21%, or VND4,700, to VND27,040 ($1.03) per litre starting from 3 pm. The new price mirrors levels last seen in July 2022 during the global fuel shock that followed the pandemic. Meanwhile, E5 RON 92 increased by VND3,780, or 17.6%, reaching VND25,220 per litre.

Other fuel types also saw steep increases. Diesel rose past VND30,000 per litre for the first time since June 2022, reaching VND30,230. Kerosene recorded the sharpest jump, surging by VND8,490 to VND35,090 per litre, while mazut climbed to VND21,320 per kilogram.

The adjustment was made earlier than Vietnam's usual Thursday fuel pricing schedule after the government introduced Resolution 36 on Friday, March 6.

The new policy allows the authorities to implement immediate price changes if the base price rises by 7% or more within a single day. Despite the sharp rise, the inter-ministry panel responsible for fuel pricing did not draw from the fuel price stabilisation fund, which still holds a surplus of nearly VND6 trillion.

The surge comes as global energy markets react to intensifying conflict in the Middle East. Since the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, retaliatory attacks across the Persian Gulf have disrupted key energy facilities and shipping routes.

According to Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade, between March 5 and March 6 alone the average price of a barrel of RON 95 gasoline rose by $24.2 to $116.2, while diesel and kerosene prices each increased by 36%.

Energy infrastructure across the region has also been severely affected. Qatar has halted liquefied natural gas production after Iranian drone strikes targeted its Ras Laffan facility. Israel has shut down its Leviathan and Karish gas fields, while Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery, one of the largest in the Middle East with a capacity of 550,000 barrels per day, has been offline since a drone strike on March 2.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route through which around 20% of the world's oil supply passes daily, has slowed dramatically. Approximately 750 vessels are now waiting near the waterway, including about 100 container ships representing roughly 10% of the global container fleet, according to the chief executive of shipping company Ocean Network Express.

In Vietnam, the impact is already being felt by ordinary consumers. Hoang Tuyet, a Hanoi resident, said the cost of filling her motorbike has risen significantly in just a short time.

"Before the increase, I spent around VND60,000 to fill up," she told VN Express International. "Now it's close to VND70,000."

She added that many people are worried about how unpredictable global energy prices could affect daily life if the situation continues.

Concerns are also emerging within the domestic fuel supply chain. Commissions paid by wholesalers to retail petrol stations have fallen to nearly zero, while the amount of fuel allocated to retailers has decreased.

Vietnam relies on its two domestic refineries to supply roughly 70% to 80% of national fuel demand, with the remaining portion imported. The Ministry of Industry and Trade said that fuel supply for March is "fundamentally ensured" through a combination of local production, reserves and imports.

Major distributors have also stated that they currently have enough stock to meet demand through March and April and are coordinating with international partners to secure deliveries. However, analysts warn that if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, global oil prices could climb beyond $100 per barrel, potentially leading to further increases in fuel prices across Vietnam.

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