Mexico's Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) is facing renewed uncertainty over its leadership following reports that its longtime leader, Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as "El Mencho," has died, according to media reports and security analysts.
El Mencho, one of Mexico's most powerful drug traffickers, had led CJNG for more than a decade, overseeing its expansion into one of the country's most violent and geographically widespread criminal groups. Mexican authorities have not formally confirmed his death.
Analysts say the cartel lacks a clear successor. El Mencho's biological son, Rubén Oseguera González, known as "El Menchito," was extradited to the United States in 2020 and later convicted on drug trafficking charges, effectively removing him from contention.
Attention has instead turned to Juan Carlos Valencia González, often described as El Mencho's stepson, who has been named in U.S. and Mexican indictments as a senior CJNG figure. However, security experts caution that his authority within the cartel is not universally accepted.
The security consultant based in Mexico City, David Saucedo, has told CNN that the line of succession has been ruined and no apparent family successor exists. "The CJNG does not have a consolidated heir as did the Sinaloa cartel, where the sons of Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman, the Chapitos, assumed control within a relatively short period of time. It has three rivals with varying types of power, neither having enough of any type to be sure.
Former associates and intelligence assessments suggest internal mistrust among senior commanders, raising the risk of fragmentation or internal power struggles. CJNG has previously weathered leadership disruptions, but analysts say El Mencho's absence could weaken internal cohesion.
The Stepson With the Name and Not the Loyalty
The most frequent name that would be found in intelligence files is that of Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez or El 03. He is a stepson of El Mencho and the son of Rosalinda Gonzalez Valencia or more known inside as La Jefa, the financial administrator of the cartel.
Among the internal structure, the character that has the best succession story is referred to as El 03. He not only is part of the inner circle, but he is also the stepson of the leader and the son of Rosalinda Gonzalez Valencia, who has always been viewed as the financial administrator of the clan. In the present day cartel, kinship is not a sure power source but it offers the aspect of symbolic power.
El 03 is credited with having established and commanded the Grupo Elite which is the most dreadful tactical armed component of the CJNG which is charged with doing targeted executions and the protection of disputed areas. Since 2021, the US Department of State has provided a $5 million reward on information that would result in his capture. In 2019, he was indicted in a court in Washington on conspiracy to deliver cocaine and methamphetamine to the United States. But it is not a legal liability he is critically liable to, but an internal one.
National Counterterrorism Center, affiliated with the US Director of National Intelligence, has recognized that El 03 does not have influence in other cartel commanders. Security expert Victor Manuel Sanchez, who served as the principal advisor of the Mexico National Security Commission, described the field in a nutshell: Juan Carlos Valencia would be a natural successor; the Jardinero, on the other hand, is the one that controls a larger territory and the Sapo, the one that negotiates the best deals.
The man who may already be dead
El Jardinero - Audias Flores Silva - is a representation of an entirely varied power base. He is a local distributor who has extensive organizational connections over Jalisco, Michoacan and Nayarit whose activities are characterized by the brokering of alliances and the discreet profile of his operations. Although Flores Silva is reportedly seen as the intermediary between the CJNG and the Chapitos in Sinaloa, his actual strength would be having the ability to determine which of the plazas report to whom in a post-Mencho environment. Analysts believe that his leadership would propel the CJNG into a semi-autonomous organization with poor coordination among the middle ranks.
Then there is the wild card: Gonzalo Mendoza Gaitan, El Sapo. He has been publicly listed by the US Department of the Treasury as a senior CJNG expert dealing with recruitment strategies. The Department said that Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan El Sapo is a high-ranking CJNG member and that he is known by his recruitment strategies that CJNG uses to get more soldiers onboard. He also manages the logistics of the cartel in the acquisition of chemical precursors in China, which are used to produce fentanyl and methamphetamine.
Nonetheless, a few of the local media have reported that El Sapo was one of the CJNG members who were shot in the process of the operation against El Mencho. That would be a second fatal strike to the command system of the cartel in one day, if true.
What the Vacuum Is? And What Will Follow
Three indicators emerge. Mexican and US security agencies are keeping a close track on include whether El 03 will expand on his armed units in Jalisco in the next few days, whether El Jardinero will start falsifying deals of regional loyalty, and whether the status of El Sapo, dead or alive, will be officially confirmed.
El 03's leadership would mean a more corporate than military CJNG. Less conspicuous open violence, more secure economic activity. Instead of confrontations, he would probably opt to emphasize logistical continuity, local deals and incremental expansion. The cartel would not be less dangerous but it would be more institutional, the expert said.
The Security Secretary of Mexico, Omar Garcia Harfuch, has indicated that the authorities will be quite keen on any restructuring. The documents on who will be the next leader of the CJNG are open. And even in that quiet three men are already calculating.
