- Carriers launched commercial satellite-to-device services in 2025.
- T-Mobile introduced US D2D messaging beyond emergency use.
- Starlink held 72% of US satellite broadband market.
- Analysts project D2D revenues to exceed $10 billion by 2030.
Connected satellite-to-direction became officially paid off pilot campaigns in 2025, with telecom operators and satellite network companies consolidating their relationships, introducing the infrastructure or charging base, and additional functions beyond emergency messaging, according to industry reports and company reports.
The shift signifies a paradigm change in the manner in which coverage gaps in mobile coverage are handled. What started as a restricted satellite SOS feature is now being developed as mainstream direct-to-device, or, D2D, functionality built into the default smart phones. T-Mobile, in the United States, introduced its first commercial D2D messaging service of the year and added features like WhatsApp, Google Maps and AccuWeather applications to its functionality.
Trial Networks to Strategic Infrastructure.
Analysis of the industry shows that 2025 was an inflection point. D2D and non-terrestrial networks emerged as a progression of pilot projects to form part and parcel of long term carrier strategy, especially in North America, and markets in Europe weighed costs and benefits of deployment with the need to stay regulatory and digitally sovereign.
The concentration in the market is still high. In the second quarter of 2025, Starlink is projected to have reported 72 percent share of the 2.4 million households in the United States that subscribe to satellite broadband using Starlink, the highest share of any satellite ISP in more than a decade. In the meantime, T-Satellite was introduced in July 2025 after 1.8 million folks had signed into the beta meaning high consumer demand in terrestrial-satellite hybrid services.
Rollout momentum has been compounded with capital commitments. In its budgetary allocation of fiscal 2025, the U.S. Department of Defense spent 134 million dollars on commercial satellite bandwidth, which is beneficial to other operators such as SpaceX, Iridium and Viasat. Analysts estimate that the D2D revenues will be over 10 billion dollars by 2030, indicating that satellite-mobile integration might become a source of revenue, but not a coverage option.
Vertical integration remakes Competitive Dynamics.
The competitive positioning has been switched to vertical control of spectrum, satellites and distribution. The 17 billion dollar purchase of the spectrum by EchoStar by SpaceX enhanced the integration strategy of Starlink that consolidates assets throughout the connectivity value chain. This action heightened competition on competitors like AST SpaceMobile among other new competitors that were interested in scalable alliance with mobile network operators.
Iridium partnership with Syniverse is a similar approach of allowing mobile network operators to have coverage worldwide. As per the 2025 industry survey conducted by GSMA, 85 percent of those operators with non-terrestrial ambitions are working on a low-Earth orbit solution to provide global coverage with the first Iridium NTN Direct devices to be launched in 2026.
Performance Constraints and Technical Standards.
Technical shortcomings are still significant in spite of commercial advancement. According to industry organizations, the existing D2D systems provide download speeds of less than 1 Mbps and future systems are likely to reach speeds close to outdoor 4G LTE instead of reaching the full 5G speed. The performance of Indoors is estimated to be slower because of the signal attenuation and power limitations.
There is controversy regarding standards between 4G-based solutions and the 3GPP non-terrestrial network architecture, with numerous stakeholders considering the latter the more scalable long-term solution. The 3GPP ecosystem release schedule will probably determine the rate at which the integration of satellite connectivity can be integrated smoothly into the traditional mobile infrastructure.
Outside the consumer uses, defence and enterprise applications are also coming out as major sources of demand. Direct to device capabilities mean that smaller unmanned aerial systems do not have traditional SATCOM payloads, which offers extra reliability in intelligence and command-and-control settings. It is also targeting early monetisation of the logistics, the maritime and remote industrial sectors.
Second stage: Monetisation and Capability Expansion
Competitive focus has changed to now emphasizing basic messaging to voice and limited video capability that is anticipated in 2026, as well as enterprise-grade service levels. The operators have the challenge of capacity scaling and maintaining spectrum efficiency and controlling the intensity of capital.
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In case the growth of revenues comes to pass, and technical performance gains persist under the frameworks of 3GPP, the satellite to device connectivity would be transformed into not only a coverage safeguard, but a main tenet of mobile network strategy in the next 2 years.
