The World Bank (WB) predicted in its 'Taking Stock – Vietnam Economic Update, September 2025' in Hanoi that as export growth and the global trade slows, GDP growth will ease to 6.6% in 2025 and 6.1% in 2026.
According to the World Bank, strong exports helped the nation's GDP grow by 7.5% in the first half of 2025 as businesses increased orders in the face of uncertainty surrounding international trade policies.
Faster public investment disbursement and robust foreign investment helped to support investment growth of 8% at constant prices. A recovery in tourism led to an 8% increase in final consumption.
Exports rose 14.2% year over year, with shipments to the US rising 28.3%, according to data for the first half of the year.
In order to fulfill the increased demand during the export push, imports also increased by 16% in H1. The World Bank anticipated that this explosive export growth will slow.
The report stated, "New export orders showed signs of improvement in July 2025 after the Vietnam–United States trade agreement was announced, but they remain in low territory. As the United States is Vietnam's leading export market, the country is highly exposed to these developments."
WB analysts predicted that global economic activity would decline from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.3% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026, respectively (down 0.4 and 0.3 percentage points from the January 2025 forecast). Prolonged geopolitical tensions and slower growth in global trade are the causes.
Vietnam's biggest trading partners, the US and China, are predicted to slow down in the second half of this year, which will further reduce demand for Vietnamese goods.
Additionally, growing policy uncertainty is hurting consumer and investor confidence.
These trends have a direct impact on growth in export-oriented economies like Vietnam, whose GDP is expected to grow 6.6% by 2025.
"After strong momentum in the first half of 2025, Vietnam's economy is expected to slow during the remaining months of 2025 as overall export growth likely returns to rates seen in more stable periods," the report stated.
The report emphasized that a lower net-export contribution to GDP growth is assumed in the baseline forecast. However, how trade conditions change will have a significant impact on the outlook.
The World Bank predicted GDP growth of 6.1% in 2026 as the global trade slowdown takes hold, followed by a recovery to 6.5% in 2027 as global trade improves and Vietnam maintains its competitiveness in global value chains.
Mariam Sherman, the WB Country Director for Vietnam, stressed during her remarks at the report's launch that the outlook was still unclear and would rely on developments in international trade. If global headwinds and trade disruptions materialize, the current momentum could wane, so it should not be taken for granted.
These ambiguities highlighted the necessity of exercising caution and adaptability when formulating policies in order to determine the best course in a shifting economic landscape.
Experts advise Vietnam to keep promoting itself as a desirable location for international companies in order to maintain and accelerate growth. Supporting domestic services and activities will also become more crucial in order to protect growth from outside threats.
"Expanding high-quality public investment can play a role here. By creating an enabling environment for business and encouraging private consumption, Vietnam can build resilience and secure a sustainable economic future," one expert suggested, as quoted by The Nation.
