Vietnam's ambition to achieve double-digit economic growth in 2026 will depend heavily on its ability to pool and deploy investment resources effectively, with public funds expected to play a central role, according to economists and policy experts.
The National Assembly has set a target of 10% gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2026, a goal that will require substantial capital inflows.
Do Thien Anh Tuan, a lecturer at the Fulbright School of Public Policy and Management, said public investment alone could need to reach as high as VND1.65 quadrillion (US$63 billion) to support such expansion.
Speaking at a recent policy forum, Tuan noted that total social investment currently accounts for about 33% of GDP, with public investment making up roughly 10% of GDP, or around 28% of overall investment. Assuming real economic growth of 10% and inflation of 4% in 2026, Vietnam's nominal economic size could exceed VND14 quadrillion, he said.
According to the Ministry of Finance, achieving 10% growth would require nearly VND4.93 quadrillion in total social investment, equivalent to about 33 to 33.7% of GDP.
This would represent an increase of 18.7% from an estimated VND4.15 quadrillion, or 32.3% of GDP, expected in 2025. While lower than some projections, the figure still points to exceptionally high funding needs.
For 2026, the legislature has approved VND1.12 quadrillion in state budget spending for development, with public investment amounting to VND1.08 quadrillion.
This includes VND430 trillion from the central budget and VND650.26 trillion from local budgets, along with other allocations. The remaining gap to reach the required VND4.93 quadrillion will have to be filled through stronger mobilisation of private-sector and foreign capital.
Deputy Finance Minister Do Thanh Trung said fiscal policy would continue to act as a key growth driver but stressed the need for capital markets to develop into a primary source of medium- and long-term financing. This would help reduce the economy's heavy reliance on bank credit, while strengthening the role of businesses in mobilising and allocating resources.
Dau Anh Tuan, Vice Secretary General and Director of the Legal Department at the Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry (VCCI), highlighted that recent amendments to laws governing investment, public investment, land, construction and planning are helping to facilitate capital flows.
He added that decentralisation and greater authority for local governments to reallocate capital are emerging as important enablers.
However, he cautioned that Vietnam's post-pandemic Incremental Capital-Output Ratio (ICOR), which measures investment efficiency, averages 5.85 — high compared with regional peers and indicative of inefficient capital use.
Without improvements, achieving 10% growth could require social investment exceeding 47% of GDP, placing unsustainable pressure on the economy. A more realistic approach, he said, would be to keep investment closer to 40% of GDP while reducing the ICOR to below 5.
Accelerating the disbursement of public investment funds is also critical, as timing is as important as scale in determining effectiveness, Tuan noted.
As of December 18, 2025, disbursement had reached only 66.1% of the Prime Minister's plan, underscoring the need for stronger execution across project selection, preparation, site clearance and the resolution of material and procedural bottlenecks.
He also warned against focusing too narrowly on disbursement rates, arguing that oversight should extend across the full project life cycle. An excessive emphasis on disbursement ratios, he said, risks encouraging inefficient project choices or prioritising speed over quality and long-term impact.
