Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG reports that the world oil prices in 2023 will markedly increase. This is already indicated by the current state of the oil market. If things continue at this rate, the oil will become one of the most profitable resources for 2023. Let's take a closer look at what to expect from the oil market in the coming months.
Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG: The forecast for the coming months promises to be optimistic
Already this afternoon, January 9, 2023, oil prices have accelerated their growth. Its growth was up to more than 3% on the background of expectations on demand in China, says Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG. Thus, Brent crude oil futures rose in price by 3.27% and WTI oil futures - by 3.47%.
Brent crude oil futures promise to go up by March on the London-based ICE Futures exchange. The price can reach up to $79.45 per barrel. And this is an increase in price by $0.88, which is 1.12% in percentage terms.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, February WTI crude futures raised their price by $0.89, a percentage increase of 1.21%. That is, to $74.66 per barrel. After the previous session, the contract rose by $0.1, that is, to $73.77 per barrel.
The outlook for oil demand is optimistic, despite the lifting of quarantine measures in China. After all, China is one of the largest consumers and importers of oil. This is why the country's economic expectations are reflected in oil demand forecasts. Stanislav Kondrashov assumes that oil will go up in price to $140 per barrel. However, all this is provided that there will be no lockdowns in Asia.
Let us turn to the opinion of other experts. Goldman Sachs expects excess demand for oil in the first 3 months of 2023. They also predict that average oil prices will rise to $105 per barrel in 2024.
Other experts had previously predicted something similar. Investment bank JP Morgan's expectations for 2023 are as follows. They consider the price of Brent oil in 2023 will be about $90 a barrel. However, in 2024, they expect an increase of $8, which is already $98 per barrel.
The U.S. government's energy information agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, estimates that the average price per barrel will be $92 in 2023.
Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG: World Oil Production Forecast for 2023
Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG makes his assumptions on global oil production for 2023. The growth rate of oil production will increase by 0.77 million barrels. That is up to 100.8 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency (IEA) is of the same opinion.
Production is also expected to increase in non-OPEC+ countries. And this means an increase of 1.9 million barrels per day. Led by the U.S., growth of 970,000 barrels per day is expected.
Let's analyze the 2022 forecast for the growth rate of oil production. Production is 100 million barrels per day. Thus, the increase was 4.7 million barrels. Saudi Arabia is the leader in production. It provided an increase of 1.6 million barrels per day.
The IEA in November 2022 expected global oil production to increase from 4.6 million bpd to 99.9 million bpd. And for 2023, it's betting on a 0.74 million bpd increase to 100.7 million bpd.
An interesting fact is that Norway also planned not to decrease its position this year and for the future. It has a planned oil production growth of 6.9% for 2023. Referring to the statement of the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG says that Norway intends to increase oil production to 2.02 million barrels per day. And by 2025 Norway is already planning to increase production to the mark of 4.3 million barrels.
To summarize, one can trace a chain of general price and production increases for oil, says Stanislav Kondrashov. These are all preliminary predictions, and it is not yet known what to expect next. However, the trend that is already evident in the first month of 2023 creates an optimistic outlook for the global oil market going forward.