Singapore's resident total fertility rate (TFR) has fallen to a new historic low of 0.87 in 2025, intensifying concerns about how plunging birth rates and a rapidly ageing population will reshape the nation in the decades ahead.
Speaking during the debate on the Prime Minister's Office budget on Thursday, February 26, Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong warned that if current trends persist, Singapore's citizen population could begin to shrink by the early 2040s without further intervention.
The TFR refers to the average number of babies each woman would have over her lifetime. At a rate of 0.87, Gan painted a stark picture of what the future could look like: for every 100 residents today, there would be just 44 children and 19 grandchildren in the next generation.
"Over time, it will be practically impossible to reverse the trend, as we will have fewer and fewer women who can bear children," he said, as quoted by The Straits Times.
Only about 27,500 resident births were recorded in 2025, the lowest number in Singapore's history. This marks an 11% drop from the 30,808 resident births in 2024. A resident birth refers to a child born to at least one Singapore citizen or permanent resident parent. The decline has been swift: a decade ago, in 2015, the TFR stood at 1.24.
Gan further stressed that supporting Singaporeans in marriage and parenthood remains the government's top priority. However, he acknowledged that marriage rates have fallen and couples who do marry are having fewer or no children.
"Low birth rates and an ageing population will profoundly reshape our nation, our society and our economy in the years ahead," he added.
At the same time, Singapore is ageing faster than ever. In 2025, one in five citizens was aged 65 or older, up sharply from one in eight in 2015.
Even with immigration, citizen population growth slowed to just 0.7% in 2025, continuing a downward trend over the past decade.
To offset the demographic squeeze, Gan said Singapore will need a "carefully managed immigration flow to augment our low birth rate". Over the next five years, the Government expects to grant between 25,000 and 30,000 new citizenships annually. In 2025, about 25,000 individuals became citizens, compared with a yearly average of 21,300 between 2020 and 2024.
The number of new permanent residents (PRs) is also projected to rise to around 40,000 per year over the next five years. Last year, some 35,000 individuals were granted PR status.
Gan emphasised that the government would remain selective and maintain a stable citizen core, while ensuring public infrastructure, including housing and transport, keeps pace with population growth.
He reiterated that Singapore's total population is expected to remain "significantly lower" than 6.9 million by 2030. The 6.9 million figure, first introduced in the 2013 Population White Paper, was described as a planning parameter rather than a target. Gan said that at current rates, it would still take a considerable amount of time to reach that number, and the situation will be reviewed by 2030.
Acknowledging public concerns about immigration, he addressed anxieties many Singaporeans have expressed.
"Will bringing in immigrants mean fewer job opportunities for me? Will the Singapore that my children grow up in feel vastly different from the one I grew up in?" he said, as quoted by The Straits Times, adding that the Government takes such concerns seriously and will step up integration efforts.
In addition, Gan also highlighted the link between demographics and economic vitality. A shrinking and ageing population could dampen growth and income gains, strain family support networks and even affect national defence needs.
"At a macro level, a declining economy means less vitality in our city and economy. Our economic growth, and correspondingly, our income growth will slow," he said. "And with fewer citizens, it will become increasingly difficult to meet our national security and defence needs."
Workforce growth has already slowed, he noted, underscoring the need for skilled foreign workers to fill manpower gaps and help businesses expand. Over the past decade, the number of Singaporeans in professional, manager, executive and technician (PMET) roles rose by 308,000, while the number of Employment Pass and S Pass holders increased by 24,000.
Employment Pass and S Pass holders make up less than a quarter of the foreign workforce. The broader foreign workforce, including domestic helpers, grew by an average of 3.3% annually over the past five years, largely driven by post-pandemic construction demand. Excluding construction work permit holders, growth averaged 2.5%.
Gan stressed that migrant workers such as those in construction and domestic work do not compete directly with Singaporeans for jobs, but careful planning is needed to support infrastructure such as dormitories, transport and recreational facilities.
"Let me be clear that we are not chasing growth for growth's sake. Economic growth is the means to an end, which is to improve the lives of Singaporeans," he said.
He added that Singapore government will continue to monitor population size and composition closely to ensure sustainability and that Singaporeans ultimately benefit from its policies.
While concluding his speech, Gan suggested that the demographic crossroads is not just about numbers, but about the kind of Singapore future generations will inherit.
