President of the United States of America (USA) Donald Trump looks in serious danger of ending up as one-term President. Polls in the recent past have shown him trailing his presumptive opponent for the November election Joe Biden by a long margin. But now, the latest ones conducted by Fox News show the incumbent losing in three highly-important battleground states.
These three provinces are Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania. Two of them were carried by Trump in the 2016 elections – Pennsylvania and Michigan. In all three states, the current President is not just trailing his contender in the main polls but is also doing badly in the job approval ratings.
The results indicate that the former Vice President is getting strong support from the usual vote base of his party, consisting of women and racial minorities, and is also getting good support from suburban voters.
The base of Trump's support, white male voters are not looking as enthusiastic as before. This is the reason for him getting a smaller vote share than he had in each of the three states in the 2016 elections.
Breakup of polls
In Michigan which Trump carried in 2016, he has a nine percentage point deficit, with Biden leading 49-40. Four years ago, the current President got 47.50 percent votes while his rival Hillary Clinton managed just a little less, 47.27 percent.
Pennsylvania was won by Donald Trump with a 48.18 percent vote share in the last elections. Clinton had managed 47.46. Now, Biden has a whopping 11 percentage point lead, 50-39.
Minnesota, which had gone the way of Secretary Clinton last time is looking even worse for the current occupant of the White House. His rival has an astounding 13 percentage point lead, 51-38. The Democratic nominee in 2016 had managed 46.44 percent of the votes, well ahead of Trump's 44.92.
Game over for Trump?
These results of Fox News polls would send the Trump campaign into a huddle if not downright panic. But it is too early to write the incumbent off. The lack of enthusiasm shown by Trump supporters could be due to the current situation where Black Lives Matter supporters have become assertive. Republican Party's supporters have traditionally been found more reluctant in such polling exercises.
Furthermore, the percentage of undecided voters is quite high in all three states. Many of them are also currently interested in third party candidates. However, with the intensifying of the campaign and the approach of the actual polls, some of these voters may move towards supporting President Trump.
The polls were conducted in the period of 18-20 July among registered voters. The margin of sampling error is 3.5 percentage points, much smaller than Biden's lead but still substantial and possibly, crucial in the final count.
President Trump has dismissed the polls done so far and even berated Fox News, a bastion of conservative coverage, during an interview with Chris Wallace recently. This could be another example of the ultra-aggressive style of President Trump or false bravado in the face of ominous signs. Only time will tell exactly which one it is.