ANALYSIS: Arizona Isn't Merely Trump's Loss But a Demographic Shock to Republicanism

Joe Biden is seen winning crucial battleground state of Arizona, dealing a further blow to President Donald Trump's hopes of turning around the election results by employing legal means. According to Edison Research, Biden is poised to win Arizona, giving him 290 electoral votes, more than the 270 needed to claim victory.

Separately, CNN also projected that Biden will win Arizona, a state which was controversially called for Biden by Fox News on the election night.

According to the CNN, factors that played a role in the Democratic win in Arizona include growing Latino population and its propensity to support the Democratic, a huge rise in the number of voters shifting to Arizona from liberal states like California and Illinois.

Only Second Time in 70 Years

Prominent Republican leaders like Barry Goldwater and John McCain hail from Arizona, and the state had been a bulwark of Republicanism throughout history. The only time in more than half a century that states turned blue was when Bill Clinton won it in his second presidential race in 1996.

The Trump campaign had taken the fight to Fox News for calling the state for Biden on the election night. There were serious concerns among the Republicans about the timing of the call as they believed Arizona would remain unassailable.

However, the legal avenues gradually closed for the Republicans as hand-count audits in more than six Arizona counties, found only small discrepancies in the vote tally. Even as major networks have called Arizona for Biden, the Trump campaign has not conceded.

Why is Arizona Crucial for Republicans?

Green Valley, Arizona
Green Valley Wikimedia commons

The Republicans will be dismayed if the hardcore Red state leans to the left in the coming elections as well. By turning blue in perhaps the most crucial election for the Republicans in recent times, Arizona is showing that it's aligning closely with California and Nevada, which are Democratic strongholds.

Demographic Shift and Republican Fortunes

The result from Arizona, if it stands the test of Trump's legal challenges, would convey a stark message to the country's Republicans. The shift in demographic clusters to urban centers is costing them dear. In every swing state this year, be it Michigan, Wisconsin or Georgia, the tilt towards the Democrats happened when voters from counties representing large metropolitan cities came in. It was cities like Atlanta, Detroit, Phoenix and Milwaukee that essentially handed the presidency to Biden.

The CNN analysis clearly shows that the Biden win in Arizona was anchored by Maricopa County, which is home to Arizona's largest and fast-growing city Phoenix. The city now accounts for nearly 60 percent of of all people in the state, the analysis shows. Maricopa transformed into a sprawling mass of metropolitan hubs over the last two decades, the report says.

"Maricopa County won the state of Arizona for Mark Kelly and Joe Biden ... Here in Maricopa, we committed our resources to contact voters of color, women and traditionally underrepresented groups throughout the state. Our strategy proved to be effective," adds Steven Slugocki, chair of Maricopa County's Democrats.

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