In the rocky mountainous area of Tapalpa, Jalisco, which is extensively covered by pine forests, Mexican special forces finally killed, mortally wounded, Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes, the iron-fisted head of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) on Sunday.
When the 59-year-old kingpin was dying on the way to Mexico City, the kill shot stoked an inferno of revenge like roadblocks blazed in 16 states, at least 14 people were slain in the first 24 hours alone.
However, underneath the instant turmoil, the downfall of El Mencho reveals an Earthquake in the bloodiest battle Mexico has ever fought: the years-old blood feud with the Sinaloa Cartel which, with an estimated 420,000 dead, has been balancing on Sinaloa with CJNG shattering internally.
According to organized crime-related homicide statistics, the number of homicides in Mexico increased by more than 23,500 between 2015 and 2021; in 2021 alone, the Sinaloa-CJNG conflict alone of 4,890 killings of people was 26 percent of all cartel killings in 2021.
The division of power is based on betrayal and aspirations, but the change of hands over routes into fentanyl, methamphetamine, and cocaine has transformed states such as Baja California, Sonora, and Zacatecas into war zones, with control of the routes to billions of dollars in 2010, when El Mencho broke off with Milenio Cartel, an ally of Sinaloa, after the death of a less powerful Sinaloa faction leader, Ignacio Coronel Little.
The Saga of Domestic Power Struggle
What started as a domestic power struggle, it turned into a bloody turf war, as CJNG went on an aggressive expansion spurt into 28 of the 32 state of Mexico by 2021, using violence and corruption to overshadow its former tutelaries.
Formerly, the undisputed powerhouse in Mexico and led by Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman, Sinaloa has been crippled by leadership defection: With the 2017 extradition of El Chapo and the arrest of Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada in 2024, the homicides in Sinaloa had surged 400 percent the year after El Mayo was taken into custody.
As of 2025, the homicide rate in Sinaloa was 28.9 per 100,000 inhabitants due to infighting among the factions of the homicide of El Chapo, the sons of El Chapo, and El Mayo loyalists.
El Mencho took advantage of the disorder in Sinaloa by CJNG. By 2025, the cartel had up to 28 764 members; it is the largest employer of criminals in Mexico; it operated in more than 40 countries, and it controlled important ports such as Manzanillo to receive Chinese precursors.
Sinaloa, having 17,825 members, had strongholds across 34 regions but was experiencing 19 active rivalries, with Tijuana being one of the toughest areas where non-state violence increased 16 percent in the time frame between July 2024 and March 2025.
The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) credits to these two groups almost all fentanyl entering the U.S. which feeds more than 100,000 overdose deaths annually, and CJNG and Sinaloa have been designated jointly as foreign terrorist organizations in February 2025.
However, the death of El Mencho would turn things around in CJNG. Analysts have foreseen a bloody succession contest, which may divide the cartel as relatives such as his son Ruben "El Menchito" Oseguera Gonzalez, who has been a life prisoner in the U.S. since 2024 seek power against a weaker command structure.
In an interview with France 24, security analyst David Saucedo argues that violence can continue as long as the family members are in control, but it could take a downward turn.
DEA former head Mike Vigil celebrated the murder as a big chance in U.S.-Mexico cooperation, with CJNG using military forces, using drone bombs and rocket launchers, which were captured during the raid at Tapalpa.
Sinaloa, in the meantime, will be the beneficiary. As CJNG is distracted, Sinaloa groups may reassert their lost lands in Zacatecas and Chiapas, with the number of clashes increasing fourfold in 2023 as CJNG confronts Sinaloa holdouts.
Insight Crime researcher Victoria Dittmar attributed the post-El Mayo upsurge in violence to similar power vacuum, and told Insight Crime that the death of El Mencho would only make recruiting more cartel members more appealing, now swelling to 175,000 countrywide by 2022 and a projected 26% increase by 2027 with trends projected to hold.
Split Imminent in Sinaloa Cartel?
According to journalist Jose Reveles, in a message to Infobae, the CJNG might agree to the split of the Sinaloa Cartel to raid its lands, however, with El Mencho dead, the roles might reverse.
U.S. Deputy Secretary of State, Christopher Landau described El Mencho as among the most brutal and the most cold blooded drug cartels that the $15 million bounty served to underline his worldwide menace.
However, since the cartels occupy a third of Mexico in their territory, the human price of rivalry is also increasing: not less than 30,000 deaths a year since 2018, with civilians caught in crossfiring when a cartel steals fuel in the state of Guanajuato or cartels fight a war over the border in Baja California.
El Mencho casts a dark cloud, as Mexico prepares for the 2026 World Cup amidst cartel threats. Will Will Sinaloa take advantage of the mess, or will the franchise model of CJNG which is based on alliances such as those that CJNG has had with Chapitos faction of Sinaloa stand?
It is an inflection point, says David Mora of the International Crisis Group, which may relieve U.S. tensions, such as tariff threats directed at the president by Trump.
Suggested FAQs:
1: What triggered the rivalry between the Sinaloa Cartel and CJNG?
The war broke out in 2010 when El Mencho split with the Milenio Cartel, an ally of Sinaloa, when the leader of the latter, Ignacio Coronel, also known as Nacho, was killed. It led to a bloody turf battles over drug paths that have taken 4,890 lives in 2021 alone, 26% of cartel deaths.
2: Could the death of El Mencho tip Sinaloa Cartel to the scales?
As CJNG has 28,764 members, potentially fracturing in a succession war, the 17,825 members of Sinaloa would be able to reclaim the areas such as Chiapas, where its conflict with rivals increased four times in 2023. The issue of family takeover is also in danger of escalating violence.
3: Who are the new leaders of the Sinaloa Cartel?
Since El Chapo was extradited and El Mayo was arrested in 2024, the Sinaloa homicides have soared 400 percent as the sons of El Chapo, who are known as Los Chapitos, fight against the loyalists. There are 19 rivalries on the 34 regional strongholds of the cartel.
4: What role does this competition play in the U.S. fentanyl crisis?
Sinaloa and CJNG control the fentanyl smuggling business, resulting in more than 100,000 U.S. overdose deaths each year. The international activities of CJNG such as Chinese predecessors bring billions of dollars. The downfall of El Mencho can interfere, not stop flows.
5: What can we expect the future of Mexico cartel violence to be after Mencho?
Analysts forecast that power voids may grow the cartel to 175,000 members by 2027 and homicides will reach over 30,000 annually since 2018. A change of guard in the presidential office of President Sheinbaum is being suggested as a measure to soften the tension between the U.S and Mexico. Tourists are advised to go to safer destinations, and monitor embassy warnings.
