AFF Suzuki Cup 2016 Analysis: How Singapore can qualify for semi-final

Singapore are yet to face Thaialand and Indonesia in the group stages.

Hariss Harun
File photo of Singapore midfielder Hariss Harun Reuters

AFF Suzuki Cup kickstarted on 19 November in Philippines and all the eight teams in the tournament have completed their first round, where they have all played one match each.

Each team will be able to play a total of three matches in the group stages and the top two teams from each group - Group A and Group B - will qualify to the semi-finals of the tournament, which will be a two-legged affair.

IBTimes Singapore looks at the points table after the end of the first round matches to find out how the Lions can qualify to the knockout stages of the tournament.

All the teams will now play two more matches before the group stage ends on 26 November.

Here is a look at the Group A points table after the first round

Group A

TeamsMatWonDrawnLostGFGAGDPts
Thailand11004223
Philippines10100001
Singapore10100001
Indonesia100124-20

In the case of tied points at the end of the group stages, goal difference comes into play. If the difference is also same, then the team which has scored the most number of goals will progress to the knockout stage.

Singapore

Yet to play: Thailand (22 November), Indonesia (25 November)

The Lions managed to hold group heavyweights Philippines to a 0-0 draw on Saturday. Despite losing a man early in the first half, V Sundramoorthy's side clinched a crucial point.

If Singapore win against Thailand tomorrow, they will be well placed to go through to the last-four stages.

They can still be knocked out if Philippines win the next game and either win or manage a draw against Thailand in their final group game. (Goal difference comes into play).

If they manage a draw against the War Elephants tomorrow, they will still need nothing less than a win to make it to the semi-final.

Also, if they lose tomorrow, the chances of making it to the semi-final will be slim but they need to win against Indonesia at any cost to stay in contention.

How we arrived at the above conclusion

Predicted points table after 22 November

Singapore v Thailand

--Singapore winThailand winDraw
Singapore412
Thailand164

Philippines v Indonesia

--Philippines winIndonesia winDraw
Philippines412
Indonesia031

The following scenarios emerge, taking into consideration the result of Tuesday's games.

Predicted points table at the end of group stages (25 November)

Case 1: Singapore win, Philippines win

Singapore v Indonesia (Penultimate Group A Game)

--Singapore winIndonesia winDraw
Singapore705
Indonesia431

Philippines v Thailand (Final Group A Game)

--Philippines winThailand winDraw
Philippines745
Thailand364

Case 2: Singapore win, Philippines lose

Singapore v Indonesia

--Singapore winIndonesia winDraw
Singapore765
Indonesia344

Philippines v Thailand

--Philippines winThailand winDraw
Philippines412
Thailand364

Case 3: Singapore lose, Philippines win

Singapore v Indonesia

--Singapore winIndonesia winDraw
Singapore412
Indonesia031

Philippines v Thailand

--Philippines winThailand winDraw
Philippines795
Thailand647

Case 4: Singapore lose, Philippines lose

Singapore v Indonesia

--Singapore winIndonesia winDraw
Singapore464
Indonesia312

Philippines v Thailand

--Philippines winThailand winDraw
Philippines412
Thailand697

Case 5: Singapore-Thailand draw, Philippines win

Singapore v Indonesia

--Singapore winIndonesia winDraw
Singapore523
Indonesia031

Philippines v Thailand

--Philippines winThailand winDraw
Philippines745
Thailand475

Case 6: Singapore-Thailand draw, Philippines lose

Singapore v Indonesia

--Singapore winIndonesia winDraw
Singapore523
Indonesia364

Philippines v Thailand

--Philippines winThailand winDraw
Philippines412
Thailand475

Case 7: Singapore win, Philippines-Indonesia draw

Singapore v Indonesia

--Singapore winIndonesia winDraw
Singapore745
Indonesia142

Philippines v Thailand

--Philippines winThailand winDraw
Philippines523
Thailand364

Case 8: Singapore lose, Philippines-Indonesia draw

Singapore v Indonesia

--Singapore winIndonesia winDraw
Singapore412
Indonesia142

Philippines v Thailand

--Philippines winThailand winDraw
Philippines523
Thailand697
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